Demand Plan
AOP vs Latest Estimate (3/15/2026) — Jan through Jun 2026
Click LE cells to edit
H1 AOP
7.2M
Annual Plan
H1 Latest Estimate
4.5M
As of 3/15
LE vs AOP
-37.9%
-2.7M cans
YTD Actuals
2.8M
Jan + Feb + Mar (partial)
SKUs Tracked
15
of 15 total
Forecasting Bias & Accuracy
Based on 2 closed months (Jan–Feb 2026). Bias = (Forecast − Actual) / Actual.
Positive bias = over-forecasting. Target: ±5% bias, <15% WMAPE.
LE Bias
-48.3%
Under-forecasting
AOP Bias
-1.9%
Annual plan vs actuals
LE WMAPE
48.3%
Weighted absolute error
AOP WMAPE
1.9%
Annual plan accuracy
Monthly Bias (LE vs Actual)
| Month | LE Bias | AOP Bias | WMAPE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | -40.2% | -1.5% | 40.4% |
| Feb | -56.0% | -2.4% | 62.0% |
Bias by Strength (LE vs Actual)
4MG-57.6% bias / 60.9% WMAPE
6MG-41.0% bias / 42.7% WMAPE
8MG-55.9% bias / 61.4% WMAPE
Green = ±5% bias. Gold = 5–15%. Red = >15% (escalate to Abhi).
View:
Strength:
Flavor:
Key Demand Insights
Q2 LE is -40.2% vs AOP (2291K vs 3831K cans). Shortfall driven by 4MG softness.
MA-8 in Mar: LE +226% vs AOP (117K vs 36K)
Clear-8 in Mar: LE +80% vs AOP (40K vs 22K)
MA-4 in Mar: LE -59% vs AOP (39K vs 94K)
Clear-4 in Mar: LE -50% vs AOP (8K vs 15K)
MT-4 in Mar: LE -49% vs AOP (9K vs 17K)
Monthly Demand — AOP vs LE
Jan-39.3%
Feb-54.9%
Mar-13.5%
Apr+0.7%
May-63.1%
Jun-56.6%
AOP Latest Estimate Actuals
| Month | AOP | LE (3/15) | Variance | Actual | Act vs LE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan✓ | 1.1M | 654K | -39.3% | 1.1M | +67.2% |
| Feb✓ | 1.1M | 503K | -54.9% | 1.1M | +127.1% |
| Mar(current) | 1.2M | 1.0M | -13.5% | 585Kpartial | -43.1% |
| Apr | 1.2M | 1.2M | +0.7% | — | — |
| May | 1.3M | 472K | -63.1% | — | — |
| Jun | 1.3M | 569K | -56.6% | — | — |
| Total | 7.2M | 4.5M | -37.9% | 2.8M | — |
Strength Mix — AOP vs LE
4MG
AOP: 914K → LE: 476K
-47.9%
6MG
AOP: 3.8M → LE: 2.0M
-45.8%
8MG
AOP: 2.5M → LE: 1.9M
-22.5%
Data Sources
AOP (Current Plan): Abhi's annual operating plan, locked Q4 2025. Source: Demand Planning Sheet.
Latest Estimate (3/15): Revised forecast incorporating Jan-Feb actuals, Murphy's ramp timing, Sheetz SKU mix shift. Owner: Abhi.
Actuals: Cin7 shipment records (closed months). Mar 2026 partial through 3/15.
Variance threshold: >15% flags for escalation per Sesh ops protocol.